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Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.

Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-16; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by komponisto on 2010-09-29.

  • TheScholar estimated 100% on 2010-09-16
  • TheScholar changed their prediction from “Before 2030 organized religions will no longer have any political influence.” on 2010-09-16
  • gwern said “In what countries?” on 2010-09-16
  • TheScholar said “Western at first, then the rest of the world. So the answer would be “every country”?” on 2010-09-16
  • gwern estimated 1% and said “so this effectively=a strong Singularity will happen and everyone will become AI or cease to exist. Because Africa will not be atheist in our lifetime…” on 2010-09-16
  • TheScholar said “I’m not predicting the end of (individual) faith, just of politically active organized religion and religiously motivated political parties.” on 2010-09-17
  • TheScholar said “General question, I can’t find it explained anywhere: How did you enter “99% against”?” on 2010-09-17
  • gwern said “in Africa, religion is one of the standard powerbases along with money. Same thing.As for the 99%, well, if I enter 1% for what does that imply against?” on 2010-09-17
  • TheScholar changed their prediction from “Before 2030 organized religions [if they survive that long] will have no political influence.” on 2010-09-18
  • JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2010-09-29
  • bbleeker   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-09-29.
  • komponisto   judged this prediction unknown on 2010-09-29.
  • divide estimated 5% on 2010-09-29
  • Jack estimated 1% on 2010-10-10
  • Jack said “@TheScholar Care to make a monetary wager on this? It would have to be better defined of course.” on 2010-10-10
  • TheScholar said “@Jack No. The value of anything in 2030 is too unpredictable.” on 2010-10-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-07-14
  • Anubhav estimated 5% on 2011-10-12
  • benwr estimated 1% on 2015-01-11
  • themusicgod1 estimated 5% on 2016-07-09
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 0% and said “Hard to measure. Zero political influence? All over the world in 14 years? Not possible. ” on 2016-07-09
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 1% and said “Ok. 1% chance to cover the possibility of human extinction. ” on 2016-07-09
  • kmcharliecat estimated 15% on 2018-05-26
  • kmcharliecat estimated 5% on 2018-05-26
  • pranomostro estimated 2% on 2019-01-10