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Boston Marathon bombing perpetrated by ethnically white male.

Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-04-09.

  • gwern estimated 65% on 2013-04-17
  • gwern said “successful bombing, lack of detection, and now a ricin letter. This doesn’t seem like an African or Mideastern sort of attack (too competent and solitary so far).” on 2013-04-17
  • Peter Hurford estimated 55% on 2013-04-17
  • RandomThinker estimated 55% and said “Even if domestic, they don’t have to be white. Lots of different crazy people out there. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beltway_sniper_attacks” on 2013-04-17
  • Osuniev estimated 60% and said “Just too little impact on a symbolic level. This looks more like the act of a maniac à la Columbine than a act of war.” on 2013-04-17
  • RandomThinker said “Also, likely not to be just one person responsible. How will you score this gwern if multiple people are responsible?” on 2013-04-17
  • hedges estimated 55% on 2013-04-17
  • gwern said “If it’s a group, it’s pretty likely to be homogenous; if it’s not, I’ll go with whomever did the most work. and if that’s still debatable, well, I can always withdraw the prediction.” on 2013-04-17
  • dhoe estimated 60% on 2013-04-17
  • adbge estimated 70% on 2013-04-17
  • JoshuaZ said “Competence seems pretty low, and I don’t see why that would be a reason to think it isn’t Mid eastern. ” on 2013-04-17
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2013-04-17.
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2013-04-17.
  • JoshuaZ said “55” on 2013-04-17
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 60% and said “No claim of responsibility, plus a fairly odd target for a Middle Eastern group, plus tax day, plus Patriot’s day plus ricin letters to politicians. Sounds domestic. Sounds male. Sounds white. ” on 2013-04-18
  • JoshuaZ estimated 55% and said “Apparently I’ve forgotten basic aspects of the interface. ” on 2013-04-18
  • RobertLumley estimated 65% on 2013-04-18
  • Tuxedage estimated 60% on 2013-04-18
  • a0c4a123f7 estimated 70% and said “Mass murderers are super dominantly male. Ethnicity however I’m going by the breakdown of the population. 72.4 % of the US population might qualify as ‘white’ 0A*B… I’d guess 72-70% ish – low-balling it.” on 2013-04-18
  • Sarokrae estimated 70% on 2013-04-18
  • RandomThinker said “2 photos of suspects released http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2013/04/18/boston_bombing_photos_fbi_releases_photo_of_two_suspects_in_boston_bombing.html” on 2013-04-18
  • procran estimated 60% on 2013-04-18
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 55% on 2013-04-18
  • Jayson Virissimo said “Does this mean ‘all perpetrators were white males’ or ‘at least one perpetrator was a white male’ or ‘the mode perpetrator was a white male’?” on 2013-04-18
  • Tuxedage estimated 80% on 2013-04-19
  • Ben Doherty estimated 51% on 2013-04-19
  • NathanMcKnight said “So, reality has reminded us again how faulty our “racial” classification is. Chechens are unambiguously caucasian. But are they “white”? Looks like most but not all sources say yes. What do you say, gwern?” on 2013-04-19
  • gwern said “Jayson: both brothers were Caucasian, so the interpretation doesn’t really matter. Unless info comes out exculpating them of the original bombings (there could be separate sets of bombers) I will be marking this right soon, no point waiting” on 2013-04-19
  • NathanMcKnight said “Still not sure the term ‘ethnically white’ applies (or is even a valid concept).See:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_ethnicAnd:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caucasian_race#Relation_to_whiteness” on 2013-04-19
  • a0c4a123f7 said “They look white. I think that was the main thing.” on 2013-04-22
  • a0c4a123f7   judged this prediction right on 2013-04-26.
  • Jayson Virissimo said “Looks like there are now additional suspects and (at least) one of them is asian-looking. They are most likely accomplices though, so did not ‘perpetrate’ the bombing.” on 2013-05-02
  • RandomThinker said “The accomplices are Khazakhs, and they’re charged with helping their buddies after the fact, not being bombers. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/02/us/3-more-people-in-custody-in-boston-bombing-case.html?hp” on 2013-05-02
  • jesselevine   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-04-09.
  • jesselevine said “Sorry, g, even after reading the comments I can’t consider this prediction correct. Ethnically, they aren’t white. Your prediction pretty clearly meant a more Loughner or Anders Breivik character. Additionally, the motive was religious.” on 2015-04-09