Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
- TheScholar estimated 51% on 2010-09-18
- gwern estimated 0% on 2010-09-18
- MrHen estimated 1% on 2010-09-23
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2010-09-29
- NihilCredo estimated 1% on 2010-09-29
- bbleeker estimated 100% and said “I’d be very happy to be proven wrong, though!” on 2010-09-29
- bbleeker judged this prediction wrong on 2010-09-29.
- komponisto judged this prediction unknown on 2010-09-29.
- Larks estimated 1% and said “We’re including Iran, etc. in this?” on 2010-09-29
- divide estimated 0% on 2010-09-29
- datadataeverywhere estimated 100% on 2010-09-30
- datadataeverywhere estimated 0% on 2010-09-30
- Jack estimated 1% on 2010-10-10
- jasticE estimated 0% on 2010-10-14
- TheScholar said “@larks Yes, this includes Iran, USA, Italy, Greece, etc.” on 2010-10-17
- JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Updating seems extremely unlikely. TheScholar- would you be willing to make a bet on this? ” on 2011-05-26
- TheScholar said “@Joshua: As you can see I’m only 51% sure? Any bet would be foolish with those odds?” on 2011-07-12
- JoshuaZ said “@Scholar, that’s not a reason not to make a bet but a reason to not make a bet at even stakes. I’m willing to make it extremely in your favor. ” on 2011-07-13
- JoshuaZ said “@Scholar, We also have different predictions for prediction 1916. How about a bet where you win if either of those turns out in your favor? ” on 2011-07-14
- Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-10-12
- Emanuel Rylke estimated 0% on 2012-04-29
- najdorf estimated 0% on 2013-11-11
- benwr estimated 0% on 2015-01-11
- Unknowns estimated 0% and said “I suppose those estimating 1% are guessing at the end of the world by 2020.” on 2015-03-13
- themusicgod1 estimated 0% on 2016-05-21
- pranomostro estimated 1% on 2019-01-10
- Cato said “This would imply that the Holy See, currently a member of the UN, would cease to exist.” on 2019-03-07
- Cato estimated 0% on 2019-03-07
- Cato said “More generally, 50+ countries would have to abandon their state religions.” on 2019-03-07
- Baeboo estimated 0% on 2019-03-20
- Bruno Parga judged this prediction wrong on 2019-12-31.
- Baeboo judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.
- jasticE judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-02.
- bbleeker judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-06.
- jasticE judged this prediction wrong on 2020-02-01.