Bitcoin to hit ~$20/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model

Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-05-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-05-22.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2013-04-17
• gwern said “https://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/btc-bubbles/ current $95, believe the lowest it went post-collapse was ~$50” on 2013-04-17
• hedges estimated 20% on 2013-04-17
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 20% on 2013-04-20
• ShIxtan estimated 25% on 2013-04-30
• tedks estimated 10% on 2013-04-30
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2013-05-01
• alecbrooks estimated 15% on 2013-05-04
• tedks estimated 1% on 2013-05-06
• kiba estimated 5% on 2013-05-06
• Tuxedage estimated 5% on 2013-05-08
• Isaac estimated 5% on 2013-05-09
• kiba estimated 0% on 2013-05-22
• Tuxedage estimated 0% on 2013-05-22
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-05-22.