Humanity will experience an outside context problem before 2050

Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2050-01-01

• TheScholar estimated 75% on 2010-09-18
• gwern said “And you were complaining about ‘apocalypse’ being vague…!” on 2010-09-18
• TheScholar said “Outside context problem: http://bit.ly/9SY1Sl” on 2010-09-20
• gwern said “I’ve read Excession, but by definition an OCP isn’t understandable or really recognizable as an OCP… Well, whatever.” on 2010-09-20
• TheScholar said “A OCP is inherently unpredictable? (Which makes this prediction a bit funny)” on 2010-09-21
• gwern said “Well, also the obvious source of an OCP is a Singularity, but at each point in an S events are understandable, just not for people from the past…” on 2010-09-21
• Larks estimated 30% on 2010-09-29
• Bagricula estimated 30% and said “40 years too short” on 2010-09-29
• divide estimated 68% on 2010-09-29
• JoshuaZ said “Too vague. Can’t give an estimate. ” on 2011-05-26
• NathanMcKnight said “Difficult to define. 9/11, ISIS, and iPhones might’ve seemed impossible but we suspect super volcanoes and proton decay…so which are more OCP-like?” on 2015-12-07
• themusicgod1 said “Opposite to TheScholar, wouldn’t the concept of an OCP make OCPs logically no longer possible?” on 2016-10-07