Humanity will experience an outside context problem before 2050

Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2050-01-01

  • TheScholar estimated 75% on 2010-09-18
  • gwern said “And you were complaining about ‘apocalypse’ being vague…!on 2010-09-18
  • TheScholar said “Outside context problem: 2010-09-20
  • gwern said “I’ve read Excession, but by definition an OCP isn’t understandable or really recognizable as an OCP… Well, whatever.on 2010-09-20
  • TheScholar said “A OCP is inherently unpredictable? (Which makes this prediction a bit funny)on 2010-09-21
  • gwern said “Well, also the obvious source of an OCP is a Singularity, but at each point in an S events are understandable, just not for people from the past…on 2010-09-21
  • Larks estimated 30% on 2010-09-29
  • Bagricula estimated 30% and said “40 years too shorton 2010-09-29
  • divide estimated 68% on 2010-09-29
  • JoshuaZ said “Too vague. Can’t give an estimate. on 2011-05-26
  • NathanMcKnight said “Difficult to define. 9/11, ISIS, and iPhones might’ve seemed impossible but we suspect super volcanoes and proton decay…so which are more OCP-like?on 2015-12-07
  • themusicgod1 said “Opposite to TheScholar, wouldn’t the concept of an OCP make OCPs logically no longer possible?on 2016-10-07

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