Bitcoin may means-revert ~$10/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model

Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-05-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-05-22.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2013-04-17
• gwern said “https://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2013/04/17/btc-bubbles/ this and the other will be judged by mtgox price at the end of the 5 weeks” on 2013-04-17
• hedges estimated 10% on 2013-04-17
• Sarokrae estimated 10% on 2013-04-18
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 10% on 2013-04-20
• ShIxtan estimated 5% on 2013-04-30
• Tuxedage estimated 5% on 2013-05-02
• kiba estimated 0% on 2013-05-06
• Isaac estimated 0% on 2013-05-09
• alecbrooks estimated 5% on 2013-05-15
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-05-22.