The Wikipedia user Bread Ninja will have stopped editing more than weekly within a year.

Created by gwern on 2010-09-18; known on 2011-09-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-18.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2010-09-18
• gwern said “see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1763 & http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Contributions/Bread_Ninja” on 2010-09-18
• Larks estimated 80% on 2010-09-29
• Laurent Bossavit said “tags: people” on 2011-09-04
• fergus estimated 10% on 2011-09-05
• gwern said “deeply unfortunate, but she’s still there. at least she’s no longer as interested in the Eva articles…” on 2011-09-18
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-18.