The Wikipedia user Bread Ninja will have stopped editing more than weekly within 2 years.

Created by gwern on 2010-09-18; known on 2012-09-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-18.

• gwern estimated 90% on 2010-09-18
• gwern said “see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1762 & http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Contributions/Bread_Ninja” on 2010-09-18
• gwern estimated 50% and said “survived the yearly prediction” on 2011-09-18
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2012-07-08
• gwern said “account was renamed, still contributing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Contributions/Lucia_Black” on 2012-09-18
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-09-18.