The Wikipedia user Bread Ninja will have stopped editing more than weekly within 2 years.
- gwern estimated 90% on 2010-09-18
- gwern said “see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1762 & http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Contributions/Bread_Ninja” on 2010-09-18
- gwern estimated 50% and said “survived the yearly prediction” on 2011-09-18
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2012-07-08
- gwern said “account was renamed, still contributing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Contributions/Lucia_Black” on 2012-09-18
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2012-09-18.
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