2016 predictions: GiveWell will add a charity to their recommendations that is not on the current list (AMF, SCI, Deworm the World, GiveDirectly).

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.

  • EloiseRosen estimated 20% on 2016-01-01
  • jessriedel estimated 35% and said “Influenced by Carl Shulman’s post: http://reflectivedisequilibrium.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-age-distribution-of-givewell.htmlon 2016-01-02
  • PipFoweraker estimated 15% and said “I suspect, if anything, that something addressing existential risk may make the cut.on 2016-01-03
  • EloiseRosen said “Highly unlikely. GiveWell focuses on charities w/ the most cost effective demonstrated results, which tend to be health interventions. Xrisk may still be a worthwhile cause, or even the best cause, but does not have much in the way of proven resultson 2016-01-05
  • EloiseRosen said “Made a new prediction for this here: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/176612on 2016-01-05
  • JoshuaZ estimated 21% and said “Seems plausible. Agree with Eloise that existential risk would be unlikely given their methods and goals. on 2016-01-06
  • tstelzig estimated 25% and said “Agree about existential risk. OPP maybe, but not GiveWell. on 2016-01-06
  • Vipul Naik estimated 5% and said “GiveWell generally posts updated reviews of charities by this time + sends emails about them. None of the current standouts or other charities emailed about seems like it’ll become top.on 2016-11-13
  • Vipul Naik estimated 20% and said “Delay in putting out top charity recs suggests there may be a new top charityon 2016-11-22
  • Vipul Naik estimated 30% and said “Further increase based on delay to publishing recommendationson 2016-11-24
  • Vipul Naik   judged this prediction right on 2016-11-29.

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