2016 predictions: there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people.

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12.

  • EloiseRosen estimated 85% on 2016-01-01
  • JoshuaZ estimated 78% on 2016-01-01
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 90% on 2016-01-01
  • gwern estimated 80% and said “what’s the base rate on this anyway? Oklahoma City bombing, 9/11… what elseon 2016-01-01
  • EloiseRosen said “http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/terrorism/wrjp255a.html has a good list. He lists 5 attacks with >40 fatalities, the first in 1995, so base rate of 1 every 4ish yrs since then. He’s counting 9/11 as 3 entries though, which seems odd.on 2016-01-01
  • EloiseRosen said “If we count 9/11 as 1 event, base rate is 1 every 7ish years. And obviously base rate changes drastically based on start date, since there aren’t any >40 fatality attacks further back than 1995.on 2016-01-01
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 80% on 2016-01-02
  • splorridge estimated 95% on 2016-01-02
  • Andrew MacFie estimated 90% on 2016-01-02
  • Medea estimated 80% on 2016-01-02
  • b5mith estimated 70% on 2016-01-02
  • PipFoweraker estimated 50% and said “Presidential elections, warmongering, fearmongering, increasing inequality, militias, religious extremism, escalating protests…on 2016-01-03
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 40% on 2016-01-04
  • ivendrov estimated 70% on 2016-01-07
  • phreeza estimated 85% on 2016-01-07
  • Afforess estimated 70% on 2016-01-07
  • pkfalu92 estimated 70% on 2016-01-07
  • themusicgod1 estimated 7% on 2016-01-11
  • themusicgod1 estimated 93% and said “‘not’on 2016-01-11
  • mortehu estimated 70% on 2016-01-11
  • ChristianKl estimated 85% on 2016-01-11
  • ioannes estimated 85% on 2016-01-31
  • themusicgod1 estimated 92% and said “Drumpf is making me start to wonder.on 2016-03-15
  • NickCarneiro estimated 80% on 2016-03-24
  • themusicgod1   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-06-12.

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction