Rey is a Kenobi

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.

• JoshuaZ estimated 28% on 2016-01-01
• JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2017-01-01” and changed their prediction from “Ray is a Kenobi” on 2016-01-01
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 10% on 2016-01-01
• gwern estimated 15% and said “A Kenobi seems more strained than a Skywalker or Solo.” on 2016-01-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 7% on 2016-01-02
• danielfilan estimated 5% on 2016-01-02
• splorridge estimated 5% on 2016-01-02
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2017-06-02” on 2017-06-02
• Michael Dickens estimated 4% on 2017-10-28
• gallerdude   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-12-21.