The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding German citizenship.

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01

• PipFoweraker estimated 3% on 2016-01-06
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% on 2016-01-08
• two2thehead said “Certainly within the realm of possibility. Strong industrial and technological base. Doing it via a European space project seems entirely feasible. Posting this so I can look into it in the future. Maybe 20 percent?” on 2016-06-15
• two2thehead said “See http://predictionbook.com/predictions/176640 for my French argument.” on 2016-06-15
• themusicgod1 estimated 8% on 2016-06-15
• Reactionaryhistorian said “2%” on 2020-08-28
• two2thehead said “Reactionaryhistorian you typed your estimate in the wrong field.” on 2020-08-29
• NickN estimated 1% on 2020-08-30