The Chinese economy will completely collapse by 2017.

Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.

• chinawillfall estimated 90% on 2016-01-13
• JoshuaZ said “Defined how? ” on 2016-01-13
• PseudonymousUser said “Suggested formalization: ” on 2016-01-13
• PseudonymousUser said “Unemployment above 20%” on 2016-01-13
• PseudonymousUser said “Real GDP growth < -5.0%” on 2016-01-13
• PseudonymousUser said “Ratio of Bank Nonperforming Loans to Gross Total Loans > 10.0%” on 2016-01-13
• PseudonymousUser said “The Shanghai Composite falls by > 30% from its January 1st 2016 value” on 2016-01-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 4% on 2016-01-13
• PseudonymousUser said “If all those criteria are met, then the events would be comparable to what happened to the US economy from 1929 to 1930.” on 2016-01-13
• PseudonymousUser said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression_in_the_United_States” on 2016-01-13
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% on 2016-01-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2016-01-13
• JoshuaZ said “Using Tapetum’s formulation. ” on 2016-01-13
• splorridge estimated 5% on 2016-01-13
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% on 2016-01-13
• Medea estimated 2% on 2016-01-13
• chinawillfall said “Yeah, I suppose that Great-depression level economic conditions would be a good way to define it. It’s a first post sorry.” on 2016-01-13
• VonFoerster estimated 3% on 2016-01-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 3% and said “Assuming all 4 criteria in Tapetum’s formulation” on 2016-01-14
• PseudonymousUser said “The Shanghai Composite falling another 30% might be easy to hit but the current unemployment rate is ~4% and nonperforming loans is ~1%” on 2016-01-14
• roshni estimated 5% on 2016-01-15
• Calien estimated 1% on 2016-01-15
• EloiseRosen estimated 2% on 2016-01-15
• timujin estimated 5% on 2016-01-16
• Raahul_Kumar said “GDP of China was 67,670.8 billion yuan in 2015, an increase of 6.9 % at comparable priceshttp://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201601/t20160119_1306072.html” on 2016-01-19
• PseudonymousUser said “Raahul, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang_Index” on 2016-01-20
• Raahul_Kumar said “I keep track of a much broader range of indices than just that one. http://www.worldeconomics.com/Papers/China%20Growth%20Monitor_cac90741-8882-4311-969e-3ae0e3e2575c.paper” on 2016-01-20
• ChristianKl estimated 4% on 2016-01-22
• danpop estimated 1% and said “Not happening, China’s GDP Growth will stabilize in the next 4-5 years at around 6.5% way bigger than US or any country in Europe” on 2016-01-24
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2016-01-26
• NathanMcKnight estimated 8% on 2016-01-26
• daniel74f estimated 3% and said “Assuming all of Tapetum-Lucidum’s conditions are met” on 2016-01-27
• themusicgod1 estimated 5% on 2016-01-27
• two2thehead estimated 5% on 2016-12-04
• gwern said “2016 GDP growth was positive, so the other criteria are irrelevant and this one should be marked wrong.” on 2017-01-01
• two2thehead   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.
• two2thehead said “gwern +1 For helping me decide. (^_^)” on 2017-01-01
• GodfreeRoberts said “OK. It’s 2017. China’s economy is growing faster than ever in its history. Wages are rising. The Chinese give their government 80% trust and 94% policy approval. China’s economy will accelerate by 6.7% this year or more.” on 2017-02-18