There will be at least one active probe in Martian orbit or on Mars at least until either January 1, 2050 or until humans visit Mars.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-14; known on 2050-01-01

  • JoshuaZ estimated 58% on 2016-01-14
  • JoshuaZ said “See http://predictionbook.com/predictions/87577 for list of humans to Mars predictions. on 2016-01-14
  • JoshuaZ said “Note that in order for this prediction to be true, we need to either have probes active until Jan 2050, or until we have people on Mars (which if occurs before then, then ok for prediction to have no probes) on 2016-01-14
  • JoshuaZ said “Opportunity going strong. Curiosity has estimated life expectancy of 2 years planned, but primary RTG can go to 10-20 years (14 is the specification). on 2016-01-14
  • JoshuaZ said “Those in orbit have short expected life spans. Gap possible, but now more countries (e.g. India) able to send. on 2016-01-14
  • lalaithion estimated 50% on 2016-01-14
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 55% on 2016-01-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 61% on 2020-06-12

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