Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in Europe (all present and past EEA members) this year.

Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.

• sweeneyrod estimated 20% on 2016-01-16
• lalaithion estimated 15% on 2016-01-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 10% on 2016-04-14
• two2thehead said “Define Europe. EU states? Probably not. Turkey? Probable.” on 2016-05-12
• two2thehead estimated 5% and said “After reading about the Paris attacks (137 dead), I am going to go on a limb.” on 2016-05-13
• two2thehead said “Assume that the terrorists are 4 fire teams of 2 men each. Assume that the US studies on active shooters will be the model of response to these attacks. ” on 2016-05-13
• two2thehead said “The results say that the best way to neutralize an AS is to quickly engage them. >50 deaths? Possible. >100 Unlikely imo.” on 2016-05-14
• elephantower estimated 20% on 2016-07-10
• sweeneyrod changed the deadline from “on 2017-01-16” and changed their prediction from “Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in Europe this year.” on 2016-09-16
• Osuniev estimated 3% on 2016-11-21
• two2thehead said “2016 July Nice attack was 87 dead (including the perpetrator). Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Nice_attack” on 2017-01-02
• two2thehead   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-02.
• gwern said “I think the closest to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_2015_Paris_attacks was the Nice attacks with ~86 deaths then Brussels with 35: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_Europe#List_of_incidents no >100 deaths” on 2017-01-02