No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia) will kill > 100 people in 2017

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

  • davidmanheim estimated 65% on 2016-01-28
  • davidmanheim on 2016-01-28
  • elephantower estimated 80% on 2016-07-15
  • bobpage said “Deadline should be 2018-01-01, no?on 2016-07-15
  • themusicgod1 estimated 44% on 2016-07-15
  • gwern estimated 50% on 2017-01-01
  • playablecharacter estimated 66% on 2017-01-02
  • ioannes estimated 50% on 2017-01-03
  • Chri estimated 40% on 2017-01-04
  • Rob Bednark estimated 40% and said ““Western Europe” is nebulous. I would like to see a list of countries. on 2017-01-07
  • equivrel estimated 60% on 2017-01-07
  • two2thehead said “What rob bednark said.on 2017-01-07
  • two2thehead estimated 80% on 2017-01-21
  • two2thehead said “Assuming ‘western europe’ to be countries in the EUon 2017-01-21
  • Alti Camelus estimated 80% on 2017-03-12
  • Alti Camelus estimated 60% and said “I think that police have improved security at public events to avoid copycat attacks like at Nice, but I have revised down my 80% estimate because I think the new measures are untested.on 2017-03-12
  • sdr estimated 70% on 2017-03-17
  • tedks estimated 55% and said “Assuming W.E. is the former non-Warsaw Pact nations plus WP nations now in the EU, and also considering New Zealand + Canada. Doesn’t seem impossible, but unlikely given mainstream tactics. Gunmen in a city could do this, esp. combined with bombs.on 2017-10-20
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2018-01-01.

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