Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state (Excluding the PA/Hamas, not excluding IS or Hezbollah) in 2016

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• davidmanheim estimated 97% on 2016-01-28
• lalaithion estimated 95% on 2016-02-01
• Temeraire estimated 95% on 2016-02-11
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-08-21
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2017-01-01.