ISIS will control less territory at the end of 2016 than it does right now

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• davidmanheim estimated 60% on 2016-01-28
• PseudonymousUser estimated 70% on 2016-01-30
• hedges estimated 50% on 2016-01-30
• equivrel estimated 85% on 2016-02-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 74% on 2016-02-14
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2017-01-01.