SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket in 2016. (Payload reaches outer space, i.e. 100km)

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• davidmanheim estimated 60% on 2016-01-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2016-01-29
• PseudonymousUser estimated 57% on 2016-01-30
• PseudonymousUser estimated 65% on 2016-01-30
• lalaithion estimated 75% on 2016-02-01
• equivrel estimated 85% on 2016-02-14
• davidmanheim said “Looks like this is happening; https://twitter.com/coreyspowell/status/722932113322848258” on 2016-04-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 72% on 2016-04-21
• gwern said “scheduled for January 2017 now: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#First-stage_reuse” on 2017-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.