Lee Sedol will win match against AlphaGo but lose at least one game
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
- themusicgod1 estimated 51% on 2016-01-28
- davidmanheim estimated 27% and said “I think AlphaGo wins, but if it doesn’t, this seems likely.” on 2016-01-28
- daniel74f estimated 65% on 2016-01-29
- ChristianKl estimated 20% on 2016-01-29
- Raahul_Kumar estimated 10% and said “AlphaGo will win. Lee will be lucky to win one game.” on 2016-01-29
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 28% on 2016-01-29
- Jach estimated 76% on 2016-01-29
- PseudonymousUser estimated 70% on 2016-01-30
- gwern estimated 60% on 2016-01-30
- PseudonymousUser said “https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHRHUHW6HQE” on 2016-01-31
- ioannes estimated 40% on 2016-01-31
- realitygrill estimated 60% and said “Seems dependent on Sedol making large blunders or messing around to test AlphaGo. He fights extra hard in bad situations, but of course AlphaGo is slightly more likely to come out ahead in reading.. maybe.. some worrying misses in the Fan Hui games.” on 2016-02-01
- lavalamp estimated 7% and said “Betting the coin lands sideways is questionable.” on 2016-02-02
- ChristianKl estimated 50% on 2016-02-03
- hipp0 estimated 16% and said “I estimated 84% chance that AlphaGo will win, so this should be approximately the opposite.” on 2016-02-04
- aarongertler estimated 23% and said “I bet 65% for AlphaGo winning this match. But if it loses, it may be due to some key discovery made by the world’s best human. Conditional on human victory, at least some chance of shutout.” on 2016-02-06
- JoshuaZ estimated 5% and said “The probability that both are close enough that it will be 4-1 or 3-2 is very low. ” on 2016-02-06
- danielfilan estimated 20% on 2016-02-08
- Josh Holland estimated 60% on 2016-03-05
- nshepperd estimated 20% and said “conjunction” on 2016-03-05
- themusicgod1 estimated 61% on 2016-03-07
- PseudonymousUser estimated 41% and said “Question thus becomes “will AlphaGo win at most one of the 4 games left?”” on 2016-03-10
- PseudonymousUser said “I’m guessing Lee Sedol’s probability of winning a game is 56%, then the probability that AlphaGo wins <= 1 more game is 0.56^4 + (4 choose 1) * 0.56^3 * 0.44 = 0.407” on 2016-03-10
- PseudonymousUser said “Even if Sedol’s probability of winning a game was 0.60, the probability of AlphaGo winning <= 1 game of the remaining 4 would be 0.60^4 + 4 * 0.60^3 * 0.40 = 0.475.” on 2016-03-10
- PseudonymousUser said “I.e., even if Lee Sedol has per-game win Probability of 0.60, the probability that AlphaGo wins the match is 52.5%.” on 2016-03-10
- PseudonymousUser estimated 34% and said “Second game is not going well for Lee Sedol. https://gaming.youtube.com/watch?v=YZPKR7HzM_s&feature=live-chat-promo” on 2016-03-10
- PseudonymousUser estimated 29% on 2016-03-10
- PseudonymousUser estimated 7% on 2016-03-11
- nshepperd estimated 1% on 2016-03-12
- themusicgod1 judged this prediction wrong on 2016-03-12.
- themusicgod1 said “Alphago takes series 3-0 at game 3. ” on 2016-03-12