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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020

Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-06-01.

  • gwern estimated 30% on 2016-02-07
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2019-06-01” and changed their prediction from “A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018” on 2016-02-07
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2020-06-01” and changed their prediction from “A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2019” on 2016-02-07
  • gwern estimated 70% on 2016-02-07
  • JoshuaZ estimated 66% on 2016-02-07
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “Success rate of CRISPR is low.” on 2016-02-08
  • gwern said “Success rate is high and getting higher. Compare Liang et al 2015’s mosaicism/edit rate with more recent work like Kleinstiver et al 2016 or the MIT guys last week. Technical requirements all seem to be now satisfied as far as I can tell.” on 2016-02-08
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 55% on 2016-02-08
  • danielfilan estimated 65% on 2016-02-08
  • themusicgod1 estimated 58% on 2016-02-09
  • JoshuaZ said “Also adding 2021 here http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177133” on 2016-02-09
  • themusicgod1 estimated 38% on 2016-03-11
  • bitbatbot estimated 60% on 2016-04-30
  • gwern estimated 75% on 2016-06-20
  • leo_grint estimated 35% on 2016-11-19
  • penten estimated 30% on 2017-01-11
  • BaesTheorem estimated 40% on 2017-08-19
  • krazemon estimated 60% and said “I’m a bit concerned that this will happen but we won’t know (China doing it in secret for example).” on 2018-01-25
  • pranomostro estimated 12% on 2018-09-02
  • gwern said “https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th0vnOmFltc He is now claiming to have a successful live birth of twins edited with CRISPR for infectious-disease resistance just weeks ago. he’s been using CRISPR for a while so credible claim…” on 2018-11-26
  • deleteyourbrain estimated 100% on 2019-04-26
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2020-06-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2020-06-17
  • NickN estimated 10% on 2020-08-19
  • Jayson Virissimo said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/He_Jiankui_affair” on 2021-05-21
  • gwern   judged this prediction right on 2021-06-01.