A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018

Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Pablo on 2019-04-22.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2016-02-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 75% on 2016-02-07
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “From 146 embryos, only 7 live healthy puppies were born. That adds up to 139 dead human babies.http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371” on 2016-02-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 38% on 2016-02-07
• Raahul_Kumar said “The team injected 86 embryos.Of the 71 embryos that survived, 54 were genetically tested. This revealed that just 28 were successfully spliced, and that only a fraction of those contained the replacement genetic material. ” on 2016-02-07
• Raahul_Kumar said “http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.17378” on 2016-02-07
• gwern said “That’s pretty standard for IVF. You lose about half at every stage, regardless of whether you are using CRISPR or not. It’s a very leaky pipeline, which is why despite extracting median ~9 eggs many women need 2+ cycles for a live birth.” on 2016-02-08
• PseudonymousUser estimated 35% on 2016-02-08
• themusicgod1 estimated 54% on 2016-02-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 24% on 2016-03-11
• gwern estimated 30% on 2016-06-20
• leo_grint estimated 15% on 2016-11-19
• penten estimated 15% on 2017-01-11
• timmartin estimated 20% on 2017-11-04
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2018-10-11
• ChineseToTheBone estimated 100% and said “He did it.” on 2018-11-28
• Pablo   judged this prediction right on 2019-04-22.
• Pablo said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy” on 2019-04-22