The S&P 500 Index will close below 2000 at the end of 2016.

Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• equivrel-markets estimated 85% on 2016-02-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 70% on 2016-02-14
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 95% and said “Bank of America slashes outlook for S&P 500http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/12/bank-of-america-slashes-outlook-for-sp-500.html” on 2016-02-15
• hedges estimated 75% on 2016-02-15
• davidmanheim estimated 75% on 2016-02-16
• PseudonymousUser estimated 67% on 2016-04-07
• Raahul_Kumar said “2087 today, looks likely.” on 2016-04-26
• gwern said “closed at 2,238.83 30 December 2016 https://www.google.com/finance/historical?q=INDEXSP ; marking wrong” on 2017-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.