The S&P 500 will close below 1750 at the end of 2016.

Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• equivrel-markets estimated 65% on 2016-02-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 45% on 2016-02-14
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 85% on 2016-02-15
• davidmanheim estimated 40% and said “Base rate, more likely to go up than down.” on 2016-02-16
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.