The S&P 500 Index will close below 1600 at the end of 2016.

Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

  • equivrel-markets estimated 25% on 2016-02-14
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 13% on 2016-02-14
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 40% on 2016-02-15
  • davidmanheim estimated 10% and said “This would be a major correction; they occur less than 1/10 yearson 2016-02-16
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.

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