The S&P 500 Index will close below 1600 at the end of 2016.

Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• equivrel-markets estimated 25% on 2016-02-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 13% on 2016-02-14
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 40% on 2016-02-15
• davidmanheim estimated 10% and said “This would be a major correction; they occur less than 1/10 years” on 2016-02-16
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.