The S&P 500 Index will go below 1250 in 2016.

Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

  • equivrel-markets estimated 10% on 2016-02-14
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 6% on 2016-02-14
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 20% and said “Worse than 2008 if it happens, at this precise moment in time the odds are low.on 2016-02-15
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.

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