Greater than 15% of Republicans vote for Clinton or third party.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-05-27.

  • NathanMcKnight estimated 45% on 2016-03-02
  • JoshuaZ said “Measured how? Party identification changes based on how people intend to vote, so this is going to be easy to check with exit poll data. on 2016-03-02
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 30% and said “As a base rate, 93% of Republicans voted for Romney in 2012. Also if Sanders is the Democratic nominee I assume votes for him count?on 2016-03-07
  • NathanMcKnight said “If the prediction were ‘Clinton, Sanders, or third party,’ that wouldn’t change my confidence much. But if Sanders actually were nominated, I’d have to up my confidence greatly. He’d get more crossovers than Clinton.on 2016-03-07
  • NathanMcKnight said “If Sanders is nominated, this should probably be marked wrong. on 2016-03-07
  • gwern said “Since Clinton lost, I’m going to guess this one is wrong…on 2017-05-27
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-05-27.
  • PseudonymousUser said ““Some 89 percent of self-described Republicans voted for Trump” 2017-05-28

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