North American oil industry will collapse. Rig count will fall to zero.

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-25.

  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% on 2016-03-04
  • Raahul_Kumar said “Only 502 rigs left.http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-rigcountsoverviewon 2016-03-04
  • JoshuaZ estimated 48% on 2016-03-04
  • bendini estimated 20% and said “learning about these numbers less than a minute ago, if i knew about the issue in depth id be willing to predict 1%. This is for rig count falling to zero, not a subjective collapse of the industry.on 2016-03-04
  • jesselevine estimated 10% on 2016-03-04
  • Raahul_Kumar said “rig count falling to 0 is collapse of the industry. It doesn’t make sense to predict 20% if you think it should be 1%, place your odds where your mouth is.on 2016-03-05
  • jesselevine said “I disagree with you, Raahul. Oil extraction is not really the right indicator of the oil industry. Exploration, transportation, refining of oil, any oil, constitutes an oil industry so long as it’s North American commerce.on 2016-03-08
  • jesselevine estimated 0% and said “The fact that you’re establishing 100% certainty that the entire industry will collapse within 200 days highlights the continual pedantic foolhardiness of your predictions. goo.gl/GTdJmm —P.S. Are you forgetting about Pemex?on 2016-03-08
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 20% on 2016-03-09
  • PlacidPlatypus said “The fact that Raahul has less than 80% accuracy for predictions he gave 100% confidence on says a lot about him.on 2016-03-09
  • sole21000 estimated 1% and said “Barring some major catastrophe for humanity, won’t happen as even one rig would render this prediction wrong.on 2016-03-09
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said ““The fact that you’re establishing 100% certainty that the entire industry will collapse within 200 days highlights the continual pedantic foolhardiness of your predictions.”on 2016-03-10
  • Tapetum-Lucidum said “Well said.on 2016-03-10
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2016-03-10
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2016-03-10
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2016-03-10
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2016-03-10
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2016-03-10
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2016-03-10
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2016-03-10
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2016-03-10
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2016-03-10
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2016-03-10
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2016-03-10
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2016-03-13
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2016-03-13
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2016-03-13
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2016-03-13
  • themusicgod1 estimated 1% on 2016-03-13
  • ChristianKl estimated 1% on 2016-03-17
  • CarlShulman estimated 1% on 2016-03-17
  • two2thehead estimated 0% on 2016-04-20
  • Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2016-06-03
  • btrettel estimated 0% and said “489 rigs as of 2 days ago. They’d have to be closing a bit over 18 rigs per day to meet the criteria Raahul_Kumar set. Not happening.on 2016-08-29
  • Paul.David.Carr estimated 0% on 2016-09-01
  • btrettel said “The number of rigs has increased to 497 in the past week.on 2016-09-03
  • two2thehead said “‘Known in one day’. So what are the odds that 489 rigs closed over the past 26 days?See related prediction http://predictionbook.com/predictions/131246on 2016-09-23
  • themusicgod1 said “Rig count: US 511 Canada 138 Intl 937. These rigs take time to shut down. This claim is basically over.on 2016-09-25
  • themusicgod1   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-09-25.

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction