Civil war in Saudi Arabia

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.

  • themusicgod1 estimated 58% on 2016-04-15
  • Waring estimated 30% on 2016-04-18
  • JoshuaZ estimated 14% on 2016-04-18
  • sflicht estimated 20% on 2016-04-18
  • two2thehead estimated 1% and said “I am taking a civil war to mean something akin to what happened in Syria and Libya. This is not to suggest that a civil war can’t happen. Rather that the time frame (2018-01-01) is too narrow. on 2016-04-20
  • jesselevine estimated 0% and said “Sorry but as someone who actually understands the geopolitical situation of the Arabian peninsulaon 2016-04-20
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% on 2016-04-26
  • themusicgod1 said “related http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177908on 2016-07-08
  • themusicgod1 said “er http://predictionbook.com/predictions/176801on 2016-07-08
  • elephantower estimated 5% and said “I could see a Shia uprising funded by Iran if, say, Saudi Arabia faces a fiscal crisis and redirects investment away from Shia areas — curious what in your understanding of the geopolitical situation around the KSA makes that impossible, Jesselevineon 2016-07-10
  • elephantower said “As opposed to merely highly improbable, of courseon 2016-07-10
  • elephantower said “Geopolitics are inherently unpredictibleon 2016-07-10
  • two2thehead   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-31.

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