Lives saved from legalized stem cell treatment > Lives lost from military conflicts & flying killer robots / drones 2008-2016

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.

  • themusicgod1 estimated 58% on 2016-05-06
  • ioannes said “Seems hard to assess. on 2016-05-06
  • two2thehead estimated 1% and said “Lives saved from 2017 to 2117? Probably. Lives saved AND judged accurately/can be assessed properly within the date known (2017-01-01)? No.on 2016-05-14
  • gwern said “this is impossible to assess. deaths from Syria/drone warfare reasonably estimable, but how on earth are you going to estimate # of stem cell-related treatments, much less marginal lives saved? You should withdraw this.on 2017-01-01
  • two2thehead said “Alright. I’ll wait until themusicgod1 comments/decides.on 2017-01-01
  • gwern said “(And to the extent that it’s meaningful, it’s probably wrong. The approved treatments seem minor and for non-fatal conditions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stem-cell_therapy )on 2017-01-01
  • themusicgod1 changed the deadline from “on 2017-01-01” and made the prediction on 2017-01-13
  • themusicgod1 changed the deadline from “on 2017-01-01” and made the prediction on 2017-01-15
  • two2thehead said “Since themusicgod1 is banned I’m taking over for this prediction. Gwern’s argument for why it is probably wrong is acceptable to me.on 2018-01-31
  • two2thehead   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-31.

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