Within five years it will be generally agreed that Egypt Flight 804 was brought down by an act of terror rather than a mechanical fault.

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-16; known on 2021-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2021-06-18.

• two2thehead estimated 95% on 2016-06-16
• two2thehead said “Using the 2015 Oct Metrojet bombing as my ‘prior’. (Not sure if I’m using that term correctly).https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metrojet_Flight_9268” on 2016-06-16
• PaxRomantica estimated 30% on 2016-06-16
• two2thehead said “Related prediction http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178676” on 2016-07-04
• two2thehead said “Above related prediction was withdrawn. Related prediction subset now this : http://predictionbook.com/predictions/178697” on 2016-07-07
• elephantower estimated 55% on 2016-07-07
• two2thehead said “http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/23/world/middleeast/egyptair-804-crash-fire.html” on 2016-07-25
• two2thehead said “Safwat Musallam, the chairman of EgyptAir, a state-owned carrier, declined to comment on the latest findings, but in an interview last month, he said, “It is clearly terrorism.”” on 2016-07-25
• two2thehead said “Noting the crash of a Russian jet over the Sinai Peninsula in October, which killed 224 people, and the hijacking of an EgyptAir flight in March by an Egyptian fugitive, he added, “I would have to be crazy not to see the pattern here.”” on 2016-07-25
• two2thehead said “But Mr. Musallam acknowledged that his terrorism theory was not backed up by evidence.” on 2016-07-25
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-07-25
• two2thehead said ““Traces of explosives have been found on victims of the EgyptAir plane that crashed into the Mediterranean in May, Egyptian investigators say.”” on 2016-12-17
• two2thehead said ““A criminal investigation would now begin into the crash of the Airbus A320, the civil aviation ministry said.”” on 2016-12-17
• two2thehead said “Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38330316” on 2016-12-17
• two2thehead   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-06-18.
• two2thehead said “Hmm. I think I should have gone for a much longer time period” on 2021-06-18