Kim Jong-un was assassinated on or before 16 June 2016.
Created by gwern on 2016-06-16; known on 2016-12-17; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-29.
- gwern estimated 4% on 2016-06-16
- gwern said “unconfirmed rumor: http://www.eastasiatribune.com/north-asia/north-korean-leader-kim-jong-un-dead-after-apparent-suicide-attack/#comment-2373 no confirmation anywhere else, doesn’t follow Kim Jong-il death pattern of a blackout initially.” on 2016-06-16
- gwern said “Presumably this can easily be judged: if Jong-un appears anytime in the future, he wasn’t assassinated by a female suicide bomber today.” on 2016-06-16
- gwern said “I should note there’s also a long history of wild rumors coming out from North Korea, many of which turn out to be hoaxes or just never explained one way or another.” on 2016-06-16
- gwern changed the deadline from “on 2016-12-16” and changed their prediction from “Kim Jong-un was assassinated on 16 June 2016.” on 2016-06-16
- PaxRomantica estimated 1% on 2016-06-16
- gwern estimated 2% and said “Further details: the East Asia Tribune is not considered a reliable source and this was posted something like 14 hours ago.” on 2016-06-16
- two2thehead estimated 2% and said “What gwern said. Plus the rest of the news media would have gone koo koo by now if this was true. At least we’d have rumours and stories about rumours.” on 2016-06-17
- PseudonymousUser estimated 1% and said “< 1%” on 2016-06-17
- elephantower estimated 5% on 2016-06-17
- two2thehead said “I was going to ask what was the longest period of time KJU was not seen in public but gwern beat me to it. If he doesn’t show up within six months then something big happened.” on 2016-06-17
- themusicgod1 estimated 9% on 2016-06-17
- Medea estimated 3% on 2016-06-17
- Paul.David.Carr estimated 10% on 2016-06-21
- EloiseRosen estimated 2% on 2016-06-22
- two2thehead said “Looks pretty alive to me.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6JuDXHhlMQ” on 2016-06-29
- two2thehead judged this prediction wrong on 2016-06-29.