A woman will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.

• two2thehead estimated 99% on 2016-06-17
• two2thehead said “See this for a subset/related predictionhttp://predictionbook.com/predictions/178442” on 2016-06-17
• two2thehead said “I’m assuming that what Obama did when he was the nomination in 2008 would hold. Find a veep who would cover his real and perceived weaknesses.” on 2016-06-17
• two2thehead said “Even if there were a female candidate that could match what any male candidate could do, it would be too high an ‘unknown’ for Hillary to risk. She doesn’t seem like one to take risks, not with something so important.” on 2016-06-17
• Zebranky estimated 70% and said “Same estimate and reasoning as my prediction in the Warren case. A female candidate other than Warren seems vanishingly unlikely, so the probability remains the same.” on 2016-06-17
• two2thehead said “Fiddle sticks. I appeared to have reversed my prediction probabilities. The negative (not) tripped me up.” on 2016-06-17
• two2thehead estimated 90% on 2016-06-17
• two2thehead said “Thank you to Zebranky for catching the error.” on 2016-06-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 58% on 2016-06-17
• elephantower estimated 85% on 2016-06-18
• Paul.David.Carr estimated 40% on 2016-06-21
• splorridge estimated 80% on 2016-06-23
• hedges estimated 90% on 2016-06-24
• mortehu estimated 70% on 2016-06-25
• jasticE estimated 98% on 2016-06-25
• PseudonymousUser estimated 80% on 2016-06-25
• Michael Dickens estimated 75% on 2016-06-26
• two2thehead said “Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has selected Tim Kaine, a moderate senator from Virginia, as her running mate.http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36870441” on 2016-07-23
• two2thehead   judged this prediction right on 2016-07-23.