Prime minister Boris Johnson

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2019-08-31.

• splorridge estimated 47% on 2016-06-24
• Reactionaryhistorian estimated 80% on 2016-06-24
• JoshuaZ estimated 71% on 2016-06-24
• themusicgod1 estimated 8% on 2016-06-24
• themusicgod1 said “http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177350” on 2016-06-24
• ejlflop estimated 60% on 2016-06-25
• splorridge estimated 79% and said “New tory leader to be chosen by 2/9/16. Short time scale bodes well for Boris. Also, seems unlikely that anything will happen to make “leader of the tory party” != “prime minister” before then.” on 2016-06-27
• splorridge estimated 55% on 2016-06-29
• splorridge estimated 34% and said “Theresa May seems to be leading in the polls. I’m surprised about this.Also, now there’s loads of folk involved. Crabb, Fox, Gove, Leadsom” on 2016-06-30
• splorridge estimated 6% and said “He’s pulled out of the race. It seems very unlikely that there’ll be another leadership election in the next five years that’ll see him leader, unless the tories lose the 2020 election, in which case he probably won’t be PM at least until 2025.” on 2016-06-30
• jesselevine estimated 0% on 2016-07-02
• elephantower estimated 5% on 2016-07-10
• Jenson   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-07-14.
• splorridge   judged this prediction unknown on 2016-07-14.
• splorridge said “Strictly speaking, this prediction wasn’t “Boris Johnson will be the next prime minister” but just “Boris Johnson will be prime minister (by the date known)”. ” on 2016-07-14
• Temeraire estimated 1% and said “May almost definitely will remain PM unless the Tories lose the general. ” on 2017-01-28
• splorridge   judged this prediction right on 2019-08-31.