by 2037, a devastating earthquake has hit the west coast of the United States

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2037-01-01

• gwern estimated 20% on 2010-09-27
• gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2010-2019.htm “is of sufficient magnitude to cause over $100 billion worth of damage”” on 2010-09-27
• pranomostro said “Searching for earthquakes of Magnitude 6+ for the US west coast results in 132 earthquakes since 1900.” on 2019-01-10
• pranomostro said “The link is unfortunately too long to post here, but the search interface is linkable: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/” on 2019-01-10
• pranomostro estimated 35% and said “14 of Magnitude 7+ in the area.” on 2019-01-10