British forces withdrawn from Afghanistan by 2015
- gwern estimated 60% on 2010-09-27
- gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2010-2019.htm” on 2010-09-27
- Larks estimated 70% on 2010-09-29
- JoshuaZ said “How to judge? Combat troops have left but a small number to train people have been left per http://www.army.mod.uk/operations-deployments/22713.aspx” on 2015-01-01
- gwern said “I think I would count that as withdrawn. There’s always advisors and NGOs and whatnot, but what people are clearly thinking of by ‘withdrawn’ is military forces. the US has withdrawn from Iraq, even though lots of Americans there” on 2015-01-01
- rebellionkid judged this prediction right on 2015-03-05.
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