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Augur (Ethereum prediction market) will launch in 2016

Created by Dapple on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

  • Dapple estimated 60% on 2016-07-13
  • gwern said “testnet is up, but Augur is not formally launched, and launch now scheduled for more like mid-2017 (UI and security reviews)” on 2017-01-01
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.