Venezuela will announce (not necessarily hold) a recall referendum in 2016

Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-02.

• predictit estimated 43% on 2016-07-14
• predictit said “This acct posts probabilities from predictit.org, to test its accuracy relative to mine (and others’), and record why I think the market is biased (if applicable). See other predictions on "predictit"’s user page and test your acumen against it too.” on 2016-07-14
• predictit said “This seems pretty much correct ” on 2016-07-14
• Bruno Parga estimated 50% on 2016-07-20
• gwern said “this one is weird. the opposition got the signatures but the government refuses to announce or hold a referendum. http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/21/americas/venezuela-recall-halted/ so I guess that’s wrong?” on 2017-01-01
• Bruno Parga said “I agree with gwern that the prediction is wrong, since they didn’t announce holding a referendum in 2016. (The government is super corrupt and simply won’t go down that easily.) I’m marking this wrong.” on 2017-01-02
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-02.