Bitcoin was created by a group of programmers who called themselves “Satoshi Nakomoto” and were not employed by a state or a corporation for the express purpose of making Bitcoin
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
- ashrewdmint estimated 16% on 2013-05-01
- RandomThinker said “This is kind of broad, because if it was created by govt or corporation, there’ll be a group of programmers/theoreticians there who did it. Maybe you mean only unaligned programmers, ala an internet team of hackers.” on 2013-05-02
- Tuxedage estimated 10% on 2013-05-02
- ashrewdmint changed their prediction from “Bitcoin was created by a group of programmers who called themselves “Satoshi Nakomoto”” on 2013-05-02
- ashrewdmint said “Made the title more descriptive for you, RandomThinker.” on 2013-05-02
- hedges estimated 45% and said “Isn’t this the theory that’s considered the most probable amongst the enthusiasts? Specifically, a group of academics, possibly students, are suspected, since amongst other things they had researched tech similar to bitcoin extensively.” on 2013-05-02
- phreeza estimated 70% on 2013-05-02
- RandomThinker estimated 35% on 2013-05-02
- RandomThinker said “@ash thx. @hedges I seriously doubt academics or students, as they’d be outed by now. Especially a group. Those people are terrible at keeping secrets.” on 2013-05-02
- RandomThinker said “team of internet hackers more possible, although they like to brag too.” on 2013-05-02
- RandomThinker said “The people best at keeping secrets are right wing billionaire, govt, corp in that order (greatest to least). Corp are not that secretive because they have to make money from this somehow, unless they’re a shell corp for something else.” on 2013-05-02
- RandomThinker said “So highest prob to me is right wing billionaire + shell corp + lone wolf/small team of support. ” on 2013-05-02
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% and said “He is a lone wolf. Probably from California and into AE.” on 2013-05-07
- Samm estimated 20% and said “I agree that it would have to be quite disciplined for one not to spill the beans.” on 2013-05-09
- Isaac estimated 20% on 2013-05-09
- itaibn estimated 20% on 2013-05-09
- kiba estimated 0% on 2013-05-15
- Coornail estimated 33% on 2013-11-08
- gwern estimated 1% on 2014-09-09
- anonym estimated 10% on 2014-09-30
- jasticE estimated 2% on 2015-04-18
- sflicht said “I don’t get it. Does the size of the group have to be bigger than 1?” on 2015-08-25
- gwern estimated 0% on 2015-11-15
- kuudes said “http://gizmodo.com/this-australian-says-he-and-his-dead-friend-invented-bi-1746958692” on 2015-12-08
- themusicgod1 estimated 66% on 2016-03-11
- pranomostro estimated 8% on 2018-12-08
- Baeboo estimated 0% on 2018-12-12
- deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26
- Bruno Parga said “I’m judging this wrong because we don’t know Satoshi’s identity yet. So it’s not the content of the prediction itself that’s wrong, but the prediction with the current end date.” on 2020-01-01
- Bruno Parga judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.