Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
- RandomThinker estimated 85% on 2013-05-03
- gwern estimated 95% and said “model gives 70%, which is of course ridiculous: chrome, as the recent fork demonstrates, is google’s chosen instrument to mold the web as it sees fit.” on 2013-05-03
- PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2013-05-04
- kiba estimated 100% on 2013-05-06
- JoshuaZ estimated 99% on 2013-05-06
- JoshuaZ said “gwern, what model are you using? ” on 2013-05-06
- gwern said “my Google shutdowns analysis” on 2013-05-07
- Ben Doherty estimated 60% and said “Another 5 years? 5 years is long time in technology time. Google could easily supersede itself in that time!” on 2013-05-07
- PseudonymousUser estimated 95% on 2013-05-08
- Tuxedage estimated 99% on 2013-05-08
- Tuxedage said “JoshuaZ, this one. http://www.gwern.net/Google%20shutdowns” on 2013-05-08
- two2thehead estimated 95% and said “I would be surprised if they would kill their best chance at gathering data and affecting how the web develops.” on 2013-05-08
- simplicio estimated 90% on 2013-05-08
- Isaac estimated 90% on 2013-05-09
- Zghxzwpc estimated 90% on 2013-05-11
- RobertLumley estimated 99% on 2013-05-12
- alecbrooks estimated 90% on 2013-05-15
- FestiveBleak estimated 95% on 2013-05-15
- Grognor estimated 96% on 2013-05-16
- holycow81 estimated 85% on 2013-05-27
- procran estimated 98% on 2013-05-31
- Michael Dickens estimated 90% on 2013-06-16
- Ken estimated 98% on 2013-06-17
- ygert estimated 99% on 2013-09-16
- rebellionkid estimated 99% on 2014-06-12
- mad estimated 99% and said “Internet Explorer is still kicking, and Google can get all sorts of juicy personal data from Chrome.” on 2015-01-07
- themusicgod1 estimated 92% on 2016-04-14
- timmartin estimated 99% on 2017-11-05
- Baeboo estimated 100% on 2017-11-07
- PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2018-01-02
- gwern judged this prediction right on 2018-04-02.