Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.

  • RandomThinker estimated 85% on 2013-05-03
  • gwern estimated 95% and said “model gives 70%, which is of course ridiculous: chrome, as the recent fork demonstrates, is google’s chosen instrument to mold the web as it sees fit.on 2013-05-03
  • Theolonius estimated 99% on 2013-05-04
  • kiba estimated 100% on 2013-05-06
  • JoshuaZ estimated 99% on 2013-05-06
  • JoshuaZ said “gwern, what model are you using? on 2013-05-06
  • gwern said “my Google shutdowns analysison 2013-05-07
  • Ben Doherty estimated 60% and said “Another 5 years? 5 years is long time in technology time. Google could easily supersede itself in that time!on 2013-05-07
  • bobpage estimated 95% on 2013-05-08
  • Tuxedage estimated 99% on 2013-05-08
  • Tuxedage said “JoshuaZ, this one. http://www.gwern.net/Google%20shutdownson 2013-05-08
  • two2thehead estimated 95% and said “I would be surprised if they would kill their best chance at gathering data and affecting how the web develops.on 2013-05-08
  • simplicio estimated 90% on 2013-05-08
  • Isaac estimated 90% on 2013-05-09
  • Zghxzwpc estimated 90% on 2013-05-11
  • RobertLumley estimated 99% on 2013-05-12
  • alecbrooks estimated 90% on 2013-05-15
  • FestiveBleak estimated 95% on 2013-05-15
  • Grognor estimated 96% on 2013-05-16
  • holycow81 estimated 85% on 2013-05-27
  • procran estimated 98% on 2013-05-31
  • Michael Dickens estimated 90% on 2013-06-16
  • Ken estimated 98% on 2013-06-17
  • ygert estimated 99% on 2013-09-16
  • rebellionkid estimated 99% on 2014-06-12
  • mad estimated 99% and said “Internet Explorer is still kicking, and Google can get all sorts of juicy personal data from Chrome.on 2015-01-07
  • themusicgod1 estimated 92% on 2016-04-14
  • timmartin estimated 99% on 2017-11-05
  • Baeboo estimated 100% on 2017-11-07
  • bobpage estimated 99% on 2018-01-02
  • gwern   judged this prediction right on 2018-04-02.

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