4% of world economy is cryptocurrency governed
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-11; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-31.
- themusicgod1 estimated 62% on 2016-09-11
- Dapple said “What metric are you using for this, and where do you believe it will be recorded on 2017-12-31?” on 2016-09-11
- themusicgod1 said “I’m thinking GDP conducted in, interbank transfers/trading…if it happens someone in the cryptocurrency world will be probably bragging about it.” on 2016-09-12
- Dapple estimated 3% on 2016-09-13
- Bruno Parga said “I don’t think this question has meaning. GDP is the total value of final goods and services produced in a period of time. What does it mean for the total value of final g&s to be “cryptocurrency governed”? The transactions being done in crypto?” on 2016-09-16
- themusicgod1 said “as in cryptocurrency was used in the transactions where those goods or services were purchased.” on 2016-09-17
- two2thehead estimated 5% and said “Too soon.” on 2016-09-19
- Bruno Parga said “How do you measure which transactions in the blockchain correspond to real-world transactions, and how do you know if they relate to final goods and services?” on 2016-09-20
- themusicgod1 said “Real world transactions aren’t the only important ones???” on 2016-09-20
- Bruno Parga said “Oh, this has come due. What I mean by a real-world transaction means coins moving from person A to person B in exchange for a good or service (including currency exchange). It excludes transactions between wallets controlled by the same person.” on 2018-01-01
- Bruno Parga said “The only transacted amount in that case is transaction fees, plus eventual fees charged by crypto exchanges like Shapeshift. Not the full value registered in the blockchain. In sum, you need to have a clear definition for prediction to be judged.” on 2018-01-01
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-31.