I will be involved in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS will respond between 2016-10-01 and 2017-06-01

Created by btrettel on 2016-09-24; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-06-03.

• btrettel estimated 6% on 2016-09-24
• btrettel said “New version of this: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/110424” on 2016-09-24
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-09-24
• Michael Dickens estimated 4% and said “themusicgod1… why” on 2016-09-24
• btrettel said “On 2016-09-30 I slipped on gravel while riding at ~25 mph. Landed on my hands and right knee. My hands would have been destroyed if I wasn’t wearing gloves. My knee hurts now but will improve. Nothing worth getting EMS for. But update accordingly.” on 2016-10-01
• btrettel said “I think this was avoidable. I got the gloves because of the shear amount of gravel on the roads in Austin; I didn’t want my hands to be torn up if I crashed. They definitely worked. Still, I should have seen the gravel and avoided it.” on 2016-10-01
• btrettel said “Not much time left.” on 2017-05-12
• btrettel   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-06-03.