The Kim Kardashian kidnap/heist story is completely or mostly false.

Created by bendini on 2016-10-03; known on 2016-10-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-10-10.

  • bendini estimated 51% on 2016-10-03
  • two2thehead estimated 5% and said “Wanted to go with one percent but I’ll be conservative.on 2016-10-04
  • bendini said “This was a gut feeling without really checking the evidence, just looking at the incentives in favour of Kim making this up.on 2016-10-04
  • two2thehead said “I understand the impulse. Especially when you are starting. FWIIW you seem to have a better use of probabilities/ratio-of-correct-predictions than me. :-) I would have been over confident and gone into the eighties.on 2016-10-04
  • themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-04
  • bobpage estimated 2% on 2016-10-04
  • bendini said “I’ve not got a single one right at the 50% tier though, keep that in mindon 2016-10-05
  • gwern estimated 4% and said “falsely reporting a crime like this is itself a serious crime, Kardashian doesn’t need the money, and several other people like receptionist+body guards all need to be lying and part of it, and tabloids apparently say this gang may’ve struck beforeon 2016-10-06
  • gwern said “also, don’t you need to change the deadline on this? it’s highly unlikely any coverup/hoax would be exposed in just 7 days from your prediction. It could take years.on 2016-10-06
  • bendini said “Is there a way to extend the deadline? I’m happy to judge it wrong if it can be retroactively changed a year from now if new evidence is uncovered.on 2016-10-08
  • themusicgod1 said “probably better to just make another claim.on 2016-10-09
  • two2thehead  judged this prediction wrong on 2016-10-10.
  • gwern said “bendini: I think you should be able to edit your time with the [edit] button but yes, at this point probably better to just start afreshon 2016-10-11
  • themusicgod1 said “Now I’m not saying I believe that their account is true either, but there’s a big front page story on The Star about how the Kardashian kidnapping evidence doesn’t add up.on 2016-10-20

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