The Kim Kardashian kidnap/heist story is completely or mostly false.
- bendini estimated 51% on 2016-10-03
- two2thehead estimated 5% and said “Wanted to go with one percent but I’ll be conservative.” on 2016-10-04
- bendini said “This was a gut feeling without really checking the evidence, just looking at the incentives in favour of Kim making this up.” on 2016-10-04
- two2thehead said “I understand the impulse. Especially when you are starting. FWIIW you seem to have a better use of probabilities/ratio-of-correct-predictions than me. :-) I would have been over confident and gone into the eighties.” on 2016-10-04
- themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-04
- bobpage estimated 2% on 2016-10-04
- bendini said “I’ve not got a single one right at the 50% tier though, keep that in mind” on 2016-10-05
- gwern estimated 4% and said “falsely reporting a crime like this is itself a serious crime, Kardashian doesn’t need the money, and several other people like receptionist+body guards all need to be lying and part of it, and tabloids apparently say this gang may’ve struck before” on 2016-10-06
- gwern said “also, don’t you need to change the deadline on this? it’s highly unlikely any coverup/hoax would be exposed in just 7 days from your prediction. It could take years.” on 2016-10-06
- bendini said “Is there a way to extend the deadline? I’m happy to judge it wrong if it can be retroactively changed a year from now if new evidence is uncovered.” on 2016-10-08
- themusicgod1 said “probably better to just make another claim.” on 2016-10-09
- two2thehead judged this prediction wrong on 2016-10-10.
- gwern said “bendini: I think you should be able to edit your time with the  button but yes, at this point probably better to just start afresh” on 2016-10-11
- themusicgod1 said “Now I’m not saying I believe that their account is true either, but there’s a big front page story on The Star about how the Kardashian kidnapping evidence doesn’t add up.” on 2016-10-20
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