Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross

Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07

  • gwern estimated 0% on 2016-10-07
  • gwern said “http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2016/10/facts-of-life-and-death.html “I’m calling Hard Brexit a road to mass starvation and famine-grade deaths on a scale not seen in the UK since the Hungry Forties (that’s the 1840s, not the 1940s).”on 2016-10-07
  • gwern said “The Hungry Forties led to hundreds of thousands or millions of deaths from starvation and reduced population growth significantly over that decade, so I think it’s fair to interpret Stross as predicting >100k over the next decade here…on 2016-10-07
  • bobpage estimated 0% on 2016-10-07
  • splorridge said “When you say “Brexit will cause…” does that mean causation needs to be established or is it sufficient for 100k deaths by starvation to occur in next decade?on 2016-10-07
  • gwern said “splorride: to avoid debates, I usually treat these sorts of claims as just conjunctions: Brexit && mass death. The same reasons mass starvation is vanishingly unlikely in general are why Brexit won’t cause mass starvation, anyway.on 2016-10-07
  • two2thehead said “How is Hard and Soft Brexit judged?on 2016-10-07
  • Dapple estimated 0% on 2016-10-07
  • themusicgod1 estimated 36% on 2016-10-08
  • penten estimated 1% on 2016-10-10
  • splorridge estimated 2% on 2016-10-10
  • EloiseRosen estimated 0% on 2016-10-14
  • helldalgo estimated 1% on 2016-10-17
  • Porejide estimated 1% on 2016-11-03
  • two2thehead estimated 0% on 2016-12-05
  • Balazs estimated 0% on 2016-12-27
  • Chri estimated 0% on 2017-01-04
  • WilliamBerkeley estimated 0% on 2017-01-13
  • Temeraire estimated 0% on 2017-01-19
  • daccount10 estimated 0% on 2017-01-22
  • timmartin estimated 0% on 2017-11-04

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