California will secede from the United States before 2021

Created by bobpage on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01

  • bobpage estimated 1% on 2016-11-13
  • themusicgod1 estimated 1% and said “http://predictionbook.com/predictions/180207on 2016-11-13
  • Dapple estimated 0% on 2016-11-15
  • Bruno Parga said “What does this prediction mean, exactly? Declaring secession means nothing if you don’t become effectively independent. From the point of view of US law, there was never a Confederacy. So, do you mean proclaiming (1776) or being accepted (1783)?on 2016-11-15
  • bobpage said “Let’s go with California’s point of view. Just an official proclamation would make this Right.on 2016-11-16
  • bobpage said “if Dapple or themusicgod1 wants this withdrawn and re-created let me knowon 2016-11-16
  • Dapple said “I’m cool. I took a different interpretation, but even with this interpretation I would still pass a <1% probability. Editing the title to more accurately reflect your view may be desirable.on 2016-11-16
  • trishume estimated 1% on 2016-11-18
  • two2thehead estimated 1% on 2016-11-19
  • pkfalu92 estimated 1% on 2016-11-19
  • Bruno Parga estimated 1% on 2016-11-23
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2016-11-25
  • EloiseRosen estimated 1% on 2016-11-26
  • ioannes estimated 1% on 2017-02-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2017-02-13
  • lavalamp estimated 1% on 2017-02-13
  • gwern estimated 0% on 2017-02-28
  • sdr estimated 0% on 2017-04-07
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2017-08-13
  • Medea estimated 1% on 2017-10-15
  • Tenobrus estimated 1% on 2017-11-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “Updating, looks more likely now. If a second Trump Presidential win happens with Trump again winning the electoral but not popular vote then this becomes not that crazy. on 2017-11-27
  • peter_hurford estimated 0% on 2018-01-08
  • pranomostro estimated 3% 20 days ago
  • Baeboo estimated 0% 19 days ago

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