California will secede from the United States before 2021
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
- PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2016-11-13
- themusicgod1 estimated 1% and said “http://predictionbook.com/predictions/180207” on 2016-11-13
- Dapple estimated 0% on 2016-11-15
- Bruno Parga said “What does this prediction mean, exactly? Declaring secession means nothing if you don’t become effectively independent. From the point of view of US law, there was never a Confederacy. So, do you mean proclaiming (1776) or being accepted (1783)?” on 2016-11-15
- PseudonymousUser said “Let’s go with California’s point of view. Just an official proclamation would make this Right.” on 2016-11-16
- PseudonymousUser said “if Dapple or themusicgod1 wants this withdrawn and re-created let me know” on 2016-11-16
- Dapple said “I’m cool. I took a different interpretation, but even with this interpretation I would still pass a <1% probability. Editing the title to more accurately reflect your view may be desirable.” on 2016-11-16
- trishume estimated 1% on 2016-11-18
- two2thehead estimated 1% on 2016-11-19
- pkfalu92 estimated 1% on 2016-11-19
- Bruno Parga estimated 1% on 2016-11-23
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2016-11-25
- EloiseRosen estimated 1% on 2016-11-26
- ioannes estimated 1% on 2017-02-09
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2017-02-13
- lavalamp estimated 1% on 2017-02-13
- gwern estimated 0% on 2017-02-28
- sdr estimated 0% on 2017-04-07
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2017-08-13
- Medea estimated 1% on 2017-10-15
- Tenobrus estimated 1% on 2017-11-09
- JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “Updating, looks more likely now. If a second Trump Presidential win happens with Trump again winning the electoral but not popular vote then this becomes not that crazy. ” on 2017-11-27
- peter_hurford estimated 0% on 2018-01-08
- pranomostro estimated 3% on 2018-09-02
- Baeboo estimated 0% on 2018-09-03
- sdr estimated 0% on 2018-10-19
- Cato estimated 0% on 2019-03-06
- deleteyourbrain estimated 0% and said “ah” on 2019-04-26
- JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2019-04-26
- Baeboo estimated 1% on 2019-04-27
- AlexLamson estimated 0% on 2019-05-30
- AlexLamson estimated 0% on 2019-06-02
- qznc estimated 1% on 2020-04-15
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2020-04-18
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2020-06-17
- NickN estimated 0% on 2020-08-16
- Bruno Parga estimated 0% on 2020-09-13
- Baeboo estimated 0% on 2020-11-20
- PseudonymousUser judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.