Trump survives his presidency

Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.

• Osuniev estimated 99% on 2016-11-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 73% on 2016-11-21
• splorridge estimated 98% on 2016-11-24
• Bruno Parga estimated 85% and said “His (first) term ends on 2021-01-20, the end date of the prediction should be updated to reflect that.” on 2016-11-29
• two2thehead estimated 98% and said “I am taking this to mean that he is alive at the known on date.” on 2016-11-29
• RainbowSpacedancer estimated 95% on 2016-12-04
• playablecharacter estimated 97% on 2017-01-02
• gwern said “so this is just ‘Trump will be alive on 1 January 2021’?” on 2017-03-31
• PseudonymousUser estimated 95% on 2019-03-08
• Baeboo estimated 95% on 2019-03-08
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2021-01-22.