PredictionBook is now read-only (

Appeals court in Perugia will acquit Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito of the murder of Meredith Kercher.

Created by komponisto on 2010-09-29; known on 2011-10-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-03.

  • komponisto estimated 50% on 2010-09-29
  • komponisto said “Represents update from base rate of about 33%. Verdict expected in January or February according to reports, but delays in court proceedings seem to be common.on 2010-09-29
  • gwern estimated 25% and said “I don’t know anything beyond what I saw on LW, but it would be very embarrassing to have an acquittal and thus cynicism argues against it.on 2010-09-29
  • Larks estimated 10% and said “20on 2010-09-29
  • komponisto said “Responses so far are interesting. Are folks taking into account the relatively high rate of such reversals (1/3) in the Italian system? on 2010-09-30
  • Jack estimated 50% and said “Piggybacking on komponisto given that I know he follows the issue closely relative to myself.on 2010-10-10
  • komponisto estimated 60% and said “Updated after court agreed to reexamine the DNA results, appointing two professors from the University of Rome – La Sapienza to conduct the review.on 2010-12-22
  • Actuary estimated 95% and said “With current attention, it is too risky for new judge not to acquit unless convincing evidence comes forward (5% chance of that)on 2011-02-11
  • komponisto changed the deadline from “on 2011-06-01on 2011-06-01
  • komponisto changed the deadline from “on 2011-07-01on 2011-06-30
  • komponisto changed the deadline from “on 2011-09-01on 2011-06-30
  • komponisto estimated 80% on 2011-06-30
  • Sandra Åhlén estimated 55% on 2011-07-01
  • Laurent Bossavit said “tags: international, justiceon 2011-09-04
  • Ken estimated 75% on 2011-09-13
  • gwern estimated 0% and said “media is saying Mondayon 2011-10-01
  • komponisto changed the deadline from “on 2011-10-01on 2011-10-01
  • Actuary   judged this prediction right on 2011-10-03.
  • Actuary said “This is easyon 2011-10-03
  • gwern said “ref: 2011-10-03
  • gwern   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-03.
  • gwern estimated 25% on 2011-10-03
  • gwern said “fix my prediction, not sure how I put in 0%, especially that recently, after the report tore apart the DNA evidenceon 2011-10-03
  • gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-10-03.