A meme will exist and be relatively frequent, saying 2017 was even worse than 2016.

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

• Bruno Parga estimated 80% on 2017-01-01
• Bruno Parga said “The way this is phrased is vague, suggestions for improvement in precision are welcome. Basically I believe whiny people will keep bitching about the year, and recency/availability biases will make 2017 seem worse than 2016 to them.” on 2017-01-01
• themusicgod1 estimated 78% on 2017-01-01
• penten estimated 60% on 2017-01-01
• gwern said “define ‘relatively frequent’ or don’t bother registering it at all.” on 2017-01-01
• Bruno Parga said “Proposed definition: a search on Google Trends (USA only) for an expression meaning that 2017 was worse than 2016 will have more than 75% of the interest for a search with the meaning that 2016 was a bad/the worst year.” on 2017-01-02
• playablecharacter estimated 56% on 2017-01-02
• davidmanheim estimated 90% on 2017-01-10
• imaxwell estimated 85% on 2017-01-10
• npcuck estimated 85% on 2017-01-11
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-01.