A meme will exist and be relatively frequent, saying 2017 was even worse than 2016.

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

  • Bruno Parga estimated 80% on 2017-01-01
  • Bruno Parga said “The way this is phrased is vague, suggestions for improvement in precision are welcome. Basically I believe whiny people will keep bitching about the year, and recency/availability biases will make 2017 seem worse than 2016 to them.on 2017-01-01
  • themusicgod1 estimated 78% on 2017-01-01
  • penten estimated 60% on 2017-01-01
  • gwern said “define ‘relatively frequent’ or don’t bother registering it at all.on 2017-01-01
  • Bruno Parga said “Proposed definition: a search on Google Trends (USA only) for an expression meaning that 2017 was worse than 2016 will have more than 75% of the interest for a search with the meaning that 2016 was a bad/the worst year.on 2017-01-02
  • playablecharacter estimated 56% on 2017-01-02
  • davidmanheim estimated 90% on 2017-01-10
  • imaxwell estimated 85% on 2017-01-10
  • npcuck estimated 85% on 2017-01-11
  • Bruno Parga  judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-01.

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