A meme will exist and be relatively frequent, saying 2017 was even worse than 2016.
- Bruno Parga estimated 80% on 2017-01-01
- Bruno Parga said “The way this is phrased is vague, suggestions for improvement in precision are welcome. Basically I believe whiny people will keep bitching about the year, and recency/availability biases will make 2017 seem worse than 2016 to them.” on 2017-01-01
- themusicgod1 estimated 78% on 2017-01-01
- penten estimated 60% on 2017-01-01
- gwern said “define ‘relatively frequent’ or don’t bother registering it at all.” on 2017-01-01
- Bruno Parga said “Proposed definition: a search on Google Trends (USA only) for an expression meaning that 2017 was worse than 2016 will have more than 75% of the interest for a search with the meaning that 2016 was a bad/the worst year.” on 2017-01-02
- playablecharacter estimated 56% on 2017-01-02
- davidmanheim estimated 90% on 2017-01-10
- imaxwell estimated 85% on 2017-01-10
- npcuck estimated 85% on 2017-01-11
- Bruno Parga judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-01.
Please log in to respond to or judge prediction