Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state

Created by bobpage on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01

  • bobpage estimated 9% on 2017-01-10
  • themusicgod1 estimated 2% on 2017-01-10
  • penten estimated 1% on 2017-01-10
  • playablecharacter estimated 1% on 2017-01-10
  • imaxwell estimated 1% on 2017-01-11
  • WilliamBerkeley estimated 1% on 2017-01-13
  • daccount10 estimated 0% on 2017-01-14
  • Michael Dickens estimated 1% on 2017-01-14
  • two2thehead estimated 1% on 2017-01-14
  • kuudes estimated 1% on 2017-01-15
  • arpanagarawal estimated 1% on 2017-01-15
  • spqr0a1 estimated 1% on 2017-01-15
  • gwern estimated 0% and said “so, uh, what sort of scenarios are you all giving such credibility to?on 2017-01-15
  • kuudes said “I am mostly just unconfident, should probably have put 0%.on 2017-01-16
  • ioannes estimated 0% on 2017-01-17
  • Temeraire estimated 0% on 2017-01-19
  • Bruno Parga estimated 0% on 2017-01-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2017-01-20
  • jasticE estimated 0% on 2017-01-21
  • Peteris estimated 0% on 2017-01-23
  • pent estimated 1% on 2017-01-23
  • Tony Boyles estimated 0% on 2017-01-24
  • Alti Camelus estimated 0% and said “I’d say 0.01% chance, but the form doesn’t let me.on 2017-03-12
  • zain.kazi@gmail.com estimated 1% on 2017-04-01
  • crabman estimated 0% on 2017-06-29
  • Medea estimated 0% on 2017-10-15
  • tedks estimated 1% and said “It doesn’t seem entirely impossible to me that a superstate could encompass both the US and Russia. on 2017-10-20
  • tedks said “It also doesn’t seem impossible that, after either country’s upcoming election cycle, a hot war erupts. This depends on how well each nation’s cyberweapons can neutralize nuclear deterrence infrastructure.on 2017-10-20
  • Baeboo estimated 0% on 2017-12-14
  • enolan estimated 1% on 2018-03-23

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