HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy is responsible for framing Hermione.

Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.

  • DrDiaphanous estimated 10% on 2013-05-10
  • DrDiaphanous changed the deadline from “on 2014-01-01” and changed their prediction from “In HPMOR, Lucius Malfoy is responsible for framing Hermione.” on 2013-06-10
  • gwern estimated 5% on 2013-06-10
  • ygert estimated 4% on 2013-06-10
  • ShIxtan estimated 10% on 2013-06-30
  • nigr estimated 5% on 2013-08-15
  • player_03 estimated 10% and said “I don’t trust reasoning based on motives, and I can think of a semi-plausible motive, but Lucius wasn’t in a good position to pull it off.on 2014-04-26
  • qznc estimated 20% on 2014-07-14
  • DrDiaphanous  judged this prediction wrong on 2015-02-19.

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